Documentation¶
eugene is a generalized simulator for outbreaks based on the work of
Riou & Althaus (2020). The primary goal is to
probe two of the parameters that describe the epidemic of COVID-19, the basic
reproduction number \(\mathcal{R}_0\) and the overdispersion factor
\(k\). We take an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach to estimating
\(\mathcal{R}_0\) and \(k\) by running thousands of stochastic outbreak
simulations and exploring which values of \(\mathcal{R}_0\), \(k\), and
other parameters accurately reproduce the incidence of COVID-19 on January 18,
2020.